The Thucydides Trap is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon. The term became widely used in 2015, and primarily applies to analysis of ChinaโUnited States relations.
๐ Origin of the Term
The expression was inspired by the ancient Athenian historian and military commander Thucydides, and coined by the American political scientist Graham Allison around 2011. Based on an observation by Thucydides in his History of the Peloponnesian War that “it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable”, Allison used the term to describe a tendency towards war when a rising power challenges the status of a ruling power.
๐ฌ Supporting Research
Supporting the thesis, Allison led a study at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which found that, among a sample of 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling power, 12 ended in war. That study, however, has come under considerable criticism, and scholarly opinion on the value of the Thucydides Trap concept remains divided.
๐ Influence and Usage
The term and arguments surrounding it have had influence in international media and among American and Chinese politicians. Chinese leader Xi Jinping referenced the term, cautioning that “We all need to work together to avoid the Thucydides trap.” The term gained further influence in 2018 as a result of an increase in US-Chinese tensions after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on almost half of China’s exports to the US, leading to a trade war.
โ๏ธ Criticism of the Concept
A number of scholars have criticized the application of the Thucydides trap to USโChina relations. Scholars and journalists have contended that China is still far too weak for such a conflict, pointing to China’s economic vulnerabilities, its aging population, and an inferior military relative to the United States. Others have derided the Thucydides Trap as a quaint piece of ancient history that is not particularly applicable to modern times.
๐ Historical Cases
Allison’s original study included 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling power. The cases included in Allison’s original study are listed in the following table.
| Ruling Power | Rising Power | Conflict | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta | Athens | Peloponnesian War | War |
| United Kingdom | Germany | World War I | War |
| Russia | Japan | Russo-Japanese War | War |
| United States | China | Ongoing tensions | Unknown |